10 unintended consequences:
1. South Korea is frantic. Its economy is extremely oil-intensive, unlike that of its mixed-mode neighbor China—and Seoul largely relied on West Asian oil from the Straits of Hormuz.
2. Taiwan is a panic. Its LNG reserve will run out later this month. Rulers of the Chinese island are looking to fully activate coal-fired power generation if need be.
3. With deep embarrassment, the US today humiliated itself by giving “permission” to India to buy oil from Russia.
4. India is simultaneously humiliated by the US “permission” and shrugging at it – New Delhi never actually stopped buying oil from Russia.
5. Russians are laughing. Many nations across the world are now contacting Russia to up their purchases.
6. Dubai is furious, as foreigners jam the outward-bound plane routes. No one will want to visit their giant shopping mall if it’s a target in the never-ending nightmare that is the new US-backed Israel juggernaut.
7. Australians are horrified, looking at how everywhere with a US base has become a target and wondering how to back out of their over-priced agreement to serve as a giant naval base for the US.
8. The British ruling party is in a panic—their alliance with Israel is becoming a burden big enough to destroy the party, and there’s a feeling that the end has begun.
9. Japan, like Taiwan and South Korea, has no crude oil production of its own and has reserves for only about eight months.
10. The shipping and logistics industries are having a waking nightmare, with the world’s busiest shipping lane causing hold-ups and re-routing problems.
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And China? Well, China is mildly bothered. It does import oil, for sure.
But it has much greater domestic crude oil production than its neighbors, and can use internal supplies to cover more than a quarter of demand.
Also, as a long-term planner, it has been stockpiling for years.
Third, it uses less LNG than its neighbors, and fourth, it has good relations with other oil producers, including Russia and Latin America – and a new friendship with Canada.
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WIDESPREAD HARM
Make no mistake, the type of hot war that the US and Israel has unleashed in West Asia will harm all economies, world-wide, directly or indirectly, including China.
But it will do far more harm than just hurting economies. It will destroy alliances, remap allegiances, shatter trust, create alternative trade routes, and hasten the end of the US-Israel dominance over the planet, as they goes down fighting — literally.
Many will see that as a silver lining.